SurveyUSA (10/18-20, likely voters, 10/5-7 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 46 (43)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (44)
Chris Cole (L): 5 (7)
(MoE: ±4%)
This is the first time we’ve seen Hagan leading in a SUSA poll (they’ve typically been friendlier to Dole and McCain in North Carolina than other pollsters), so this is encouraging.
The Republican Civitas Institute has another poll of their own (10/18-20, likely voters, 10/6-8 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 44 (45)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 41 (42)
Chris Cole (L): 4 (3)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
All in all, things are looking pretty good for Kay Hagan right now. It’s no small wonder that Liddy Dole has hit the panic button by loaning her own campaign $3 million.
Bonus findings: McCain and Obama are tied at 47-47 in the SUSA poll (up from 49-46 McCain), while Civitas pegs Obama ahead by 48-45 (down slightly from 48-43).
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
SurveyUSA’s new independent poll of Kentucky’s Senate race has Bruce Lunsford and Mitch McConnell all tied up at 48% apiece.
SUSA oversampled Rs and undersampled Ds. They have only a 5-point Dem advantage, when its 13 in reality. If they hold 80% of Democrats and win among independents, they win, period.
20% in this poll. It was 26% in 2004. I’d expect it to be at least equal, if not much higher this year than 2004.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…
http://www.cookpolitical.com/
Long overdue move. He has also upped his range of Dem Senate pickups to 7-9 seats.
I know I’m always a Debbie Downer on here, but I just want folks to remember the layout of our ballot here in NC. The vote for President is before and separate from the straight-party vote, which covers all state and local partisan offices.
Example: http://www.buncombecounty.org/…
Studies have shown this hurts the presidential candidate and could be worth about 2-3% of their vote. I hope thats not the case this year, but it’s worth a mention. Never before have I wanted President to be under straight-party in NC, but I do now!